Official Revolution Price Prediction

It looks like with the technical specs we’re seeing for Nintendo’s upcoming Revolution console, that Nintendo was not at all kidding when they said that they weren’t looking to directly compete with Sony or Microsoft this generation …

Revolution will build on GameCube's configuration of 24MB 1T-SRAM and 16MB D-RAM (40MB total) by adding an addition 64MB of 1T-SRAM. The result is a supply of memory in Revolution that totals 104MB. (Quoted from IGN with minor edits for clarity.)

OK, so that pretty much clinches it. No High-Def for sure … there just isn’t enough RAM to drive a display with the level of detail needed for High-Def to work. Standard Definition (480p), however, is certainly doable.

Revolution's Broadway CPU, developed by IBM, is an extension of the Gekko CPU in GameCube, according to official Nintendo documentation passed to us by software houses. The Hollywood GPU, meanwhile, is believed to be an extension of the Flipper GPU in GameCube. Since developers have not gone hands-on with the GPU, they can only go on Nintendo documentation, which is limited.

"The CPU is the same as Gekko with one and a half to two times the performance and improved caching," said a source. "Our guys experimented with it and think they'll be able to get about twice the performance as GameCube." (Again, quoted from IGN.)

Wow. Gekko was already a very efficient design, but this is certainly not inspiring from a technical standpoint. I'm sure Flipper will have some of the features we've come to expect from current graphics, like the oh so shiny normal mapping, but I'm not entirely counting on it. Given that it won't be driving high-def displays, more polygons isn't necessary, so a modest speed bump with more graphic features is reasonable.

Capping off the information, Revolution will use standard DVD discs, up to 8.5GB for a dual layer disc, debunking the ridiculous 12GB disc rumors.

It seems that Nintendo is going to let the games speak for themselves, and this is a huge bet on Nintendo’s part. Then again, Nintendo made a pretty huge bet in 1985, and we know how that turned out. Some of Nintendo’s past bets have been better executed than others (Virtual Boy, ahem), but one thing is for sure … they get behind their ideas 100%.

Oh yeah, that price prediction. Given the 5 years of technological advancement and the relatively little innovation in the core hardware, I’m expecting Revolution to launch at …

$199

That’s right, Nintendo is going to stick to their own unofficial price rule of launching their consoles at $199 and really go for the jugular, profit-wise. The sick part is that at $199, Nintendo will likely be making massive profit on the hardware ... since most of the real innovation is in the controller (which may be priced around $39-$49. IGN is claiming $149, but also stating that $99 wouldn't be out of the question. I highly doubt Nintendo would launch quite that low, opting to lock in some early profits from the hardcore fans.

I'm even going to go a step further and say that Nintendo will price first party games at $39.99, undercutting Sony and Microsoft ... as an attempt to illustrate that small teams can make big profits at a reasonable price point. Third-parties are always free to price to the market, but higher than $49.99 is unlikely.

I guess I only have about a year to wait to find out if this is true, maybe sooner if they reveal the price point at E3. Wouldn’t that take some of the wind out of Sony’s sales? (Pun woefully intended.)

Edit: Revised my price prediction ... upon reflection, I felt $149 was far too low.