Xbox: Off the Record 02.25.05

IGN's Xbox channel is spreading a rumor that Halo 3 is in the works, and set to launh the same day as the PlayStation 3.

I've worked in video game "journalism", and I can tell you for a fact that there are three kinds of rumors. First is the "make up the coolest thing you can think of" kind, where you are simply gushing like a fanboy and then say that someone is working on it, somwhere.

Second is the "credible insider" kind, where you get a tip from an "insider", then spread it far and wide. While sometimes these rumors pan out, sometimes as part of a calculated "pre-hype" campaign, it's also likely to be a bit of the first kind of rumor from someone who works in the industry, but not in a position to really know anything.

Finally, there is the "educated guess", which is squarely where this rumor falls. Microsoft working on a major hit title, sequel to a best-selling franchise, that is scheduled to "counter-program" against a major console release? Get out!

Seriously, this is so obvious that it doesn't even qualify as a rumor. Every console manufacturer does this, and so do the television networks (which is where the term counter-programming came from). While it might not be Halo 3, it'll be something big.

Something this "rumor" left out is Xbox 2. Which platform will Halo 3 be on? Xbox 2 is supposed to launch before PS3, so will this keep the Xbox viable, or will this be the next-generation killer app? That's how you can tell this "rumor" is just a guess, because it lacks that one critical specific. But this much is pretty sure ... Halo 3 launching day and date with PS3 is the obvious move from a business standpoint.