iPhone or iFlop?

Today marks the launch of the ridiculously hyped iPhone, and while it's certainly the sexiest consumer electronics product to launch in quite some time, it also marks the triumph of form over function that Apple started with the Mac Cube some years ago.

Apple fans always tout the ease of use as the hallmark of an Apple product, and the multi-touch screen of the iPhone was the ultimate culmination of that philosophy. It certainly looks easy to use in those commercials, and initial reviews seem to be fairly positive. But then there was it's first major failure, televised for all to see, no less. Meridith Viera, pretty much exactly the type of person Apple would like to appeal to with the iPhone, was completely unable to get this easy-to-use phone to work in a live demonstration on TODAY. Worse yet, she couldn't get the single function to work that is most important ... she couldn't answer a call. Intuitive or not, the lack of tactile feedback that you get with a hard button has kept other touch devices from reaching a mass-market. Apple has that, plus a limited partner and high price to contend with. Past that, if the phone just isn't as easy to use as they make it look, there could be a significant problem. I mean, why else would Apple start posting tutorial videos on their website showing people how to perform very basic functions.

Add to the problem that even the tech savvy are going to notice pretty quick that this $500-600 phone is a full generation behind other phones in basic phone functionality. Walt Mossberg and others complained of slow internet speeds (admittedly before AT&T turned on their "Fine Edge" speed upgrade), and that's before thousands of people with the new device are flooding the network with Google Maps data. People don't like to hear that they cutting-edge gadget they just bought was obsolete the minute they bought it, and for the iPhone, it's a no-brainer that a more advanced version that uses 3G and possibly has GPS will be coming in a year or two.

Once that reality sinks in, people will realize that they've paid six bills (and all those service charges) for smoke and mirrors. iPhone is NOT revolutionary. It is lipstick on a pig, and sure, that's some gorgeous shade of lipstick. But all the iPhone does is make incredibly basic functions of a phone a lot prettier to look at. Even the more advanced stuff, like how you can earch in Google Maps and make a call from from that result, is sure to come to other devices like Windows Mobile sooner than later, and for no other reason than that Windows Mobile is an open platform. And that's the real rub ... unless you're going to make a basic web application, you can't write programs for the iPhone. The ability to get Java and other sorts of apps on just about any other phone platform means that people may start wondering why they're getting nickeled and dimed for things after having already missed a mortgage payment to buy their phone.

Yes, today the iBacklash is sure to begin.